Weather forecasters can't say with much certainty what the coming winter will bring to Northeast Pennsylvania, but some say they have a pretty good sense of what it won't: a repeat of last year's record warmth.
Scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday that a strangely stalled El Niño climate pattern has confounded their efforts to predict how cool or wet the winter might be in large parts of the country, including the northeastern and mid-Atlantic United States.
In an El Niño pattern, warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific can influence weather behavior across the country. The El Niño development that seemed on track during the summer suddenly stopped last month, something meteorologists had never seen in the 60 years for which there are records, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
"This year's winter outlook has proven to be quite challenging, largely due to an indecisive El Niño," he said.
The NOAA forecast predicts an equal chance of below-average and above-average temperatures and precipitation in the region.
Other meteorologists think it is safe to say that the winter will be closer to normal - colder and snowier - than it was during the turn of last year.
"It is likely going to be a worse winter than last winter only because we didn't have winter last year," said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines.
He expects temperatures to be close to normal, with slightly warmer-than-average temperatures in November and December and near- or below-normal temperatures in January, February and March.
The region's normal average winter temperature is 28.8 degrees, based on NOAA weather records dating back to 1901.
The region will also likely face storms that come up the coast on "a few occasions" throughout the winter, he said. "Those typically give us our worst winter weather."
AccuWeather's winter outlook, which was released earlier this month, predicts above-normal snowfall for a swath of the eastern seaboard that includes Northeast Pennsylvania.
"Reality will set in some this winter," Mr. Kines said. "When you stack it up against all the winters, it really won't be that bad. But we got spoiled last winter."
Contact the writer: llegere@timesshamrock.com