OK, so the Democrats won the Lackawanna County commissioners office, this time with a clearly more unified ticket, but it wasn’t their usual domination.
If you’re a Democrat looking forward to next year and the presidential race, you might worry.
Banished to minority status the last four years by the unusual majority of Democratic Commissioner Patrick O’Malley and Republican Commissioner Laureen Cummings, Democratic Commissioner Jerry Notarianni gained his revenge. Notarianni has finished first in every commissioner election he was part of, four in a row, and led the way in this one with 26,619 votes. That was more than a thousand votes ahead of his running mate, attorney Debi Domenick, who had 25,501.
By comparison, in 2007, Commissioner Mike Washo beat his running mate, attorney Corey O’Brien, by 12 votes when they both walloped the polarizing Commissioner Bob Cordaro and his friendlier “huggy bear” partner A.J. Munchak.
Still, the vote difference between the Democratic running mates this year is much narrower than in 2015. Back then, when they were still running mates, Notarianni beat O’Malley by almost 3,000 votes. Clearly, many Democrats had concerns about O’Malley.
They showed nowhere the same concerns about Domenick, but 1,000 votes between her and Notarianni still says something.
More interestingly and perhaps a clear warning sign for Democrats: Republican running mates Chris Chermak, 22,158 votes; and Scott Twp. Supervisor Mike Giannetta, 20,198; finished much closer to the Democrats as a duo than Republicans had in the last three elections.
Chermak, who won the minority commissioner slot, trailed Domenick by only 3,343 votes.
That’s not as good as O’Malley finishing 2,852 votes behind O’Brien in 2011, but O’Malley was a former Democrat who ran as a Republican. He finished more than 5,000 votes ahead of Bill Jones, the other Republican candidate. Chermak finished only 1,960 votes ahead of Giannetta.
In a county where Democrats outnumber Republicans by 2 to 1, Notarianni had only 1.3 times as many votes as Giannetta and 1.2 times as many as Chermak. Domenick’s ratio over Chermak was 1.15 to 1, and 1.26 to 1 over Giannetta.
That’s a lot of Democrats and independents voting for Republicans.
Here’s another thing. If you subtract the Scranton numbers, Chermak finished second in the rest of the county.
CITY: Notarianni, 9,541; Domenick, 8,925; Chermak, 5,554; Giannetta, 4,932.
COUNTY: Notarianni, 17,078; Chermak, 16,604; Domenick, 16,576; Giannetta, 15,266. The difference between Notarianni and Giannetta is only 1,812.
County Republican Chairman Lance Stange Jr. would have preferred to win the commissioners’ office majority, but if he had to lose he hardly could have asked for better.
“And I think we’ll continue to see that (trend toward Republicans),” Stange said. “And I think we’ll continue to gain voter registration numbers.”
Stange flatly said he thinks President Donald Trump can win the county next year. No Republican has done that since President Ronald Reagan’s re-election in 1984.
“The city is a challenge for us. It’s a tough nut for us to crack,” Stange said.
County Democratic Chairman Chris Patrick said he isn’t worried about the Democratic presidential nominee losing the county next year, but said his party has a lot of work to do.
The percentage of county residents registered as Democrats dropped below 60% for the first time in at least 20 years.
“We’ve got to start registering voters,” he said. “I was talking to (state Rep.) Marty Flynn about that last night.”
Patrick attributed the Republican performance to the presence of “two new people” (Giannetta and Chermak) who spent money on TV commercials and ran as a strong team. He took the blame for the performance outside the city.
“We usually perform very well in the county,” Patrick said.
The numbers were particularly close in Dickson City where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2.4 to 1. There, Chermak came close to finishing second: Domenick, 682, Notarianni, 679, Chermak, 638, Giannetta, 590.
The Republicans actually opened a Midvalley office.
The ratio between Domenick’s and Giannetta’s votes was only 1.16 to 1, or less than half the Democratic voter registration advantage.
Countywide, turnout was 36.73%, helped a bit by a 44% turnout in Dunmore where write-in candidate Janet Brier won and drew a lot of voters to the polls over the Keystone Sanitary Landfill expansion.
Patrick was disappointed in the turnout and said the Democrats have to do better next year turning out their voters.
Turnout was substantially better than the last two commissioner elections, 31.62% in 2015 and 33.93% in 2011.
Turnout next year surely will rise dramatically because voters will choose a president, a fact that always confounds Roderick because local politicians have greater influence on voters’ daily lives.
That only adds to the possibility of Trump winning the county next year.
Finally, here’s a regional breakdown of the numbers. We count Scott Twp. as part of the Midvalley though some might see it differently.
ABINGTONS: Chermak, 4,438; Giannetta, 3,868; Notarianni, 3,098; Domenick, 2,935; Turnout: 36.65%
CARBONDALE CITY: Notarianni, 805; Domenick, 801; Chermak, 611; Giannetta, 574. Turnout: 29.92%
DOWNVALLEY: Notarianni, 2,290; Domenick, 2,263; Chermak, 2,090; Giannetta, 1952. Turnout: 33.55%
DUNMORE: Notarianni, 2,796; Domenick, 2,564; Chermak, 1,341; Giannetta, 1,196. Turnout: 44.04%
MIDVALLEY: Notarianni, 5,242; Domenick, 5,200; Chermak, 4,260; Giannetta, 4,069. Turnout: 36.71%
NORTH POCONO: Chermak, 2,580; Giannetta, 2,390;Notarianni, 1,692: Domenick, 1,660. Turnout: 33.71%
SCRANTON: Notarianni, 9,541; Domenick, 8,925; Chermak, 5,554; Giannetta, 4,932. Turnout: 37.65%
UPVALLEY: Chermak, 1,284; Giannetta, 1,217; Notarianni, 1,155; Domenick, 1,153. Turnout: 38.34%
BORYS KRAWCZENIUK, The Times-Tribune politics reporter, writes Random Notes.