The guy many Republicans think can finally beat U.S. Sen. Bob Casey lives practically in Casey’s backyard.
They say U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta, the illegal-immigration-opposing Republican former Hazleton mayor, stands the best chance of knocking out the well-known Scranton Democrat next year.
Barletta beat a 26-year incumbent, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, to win his seat in 2010. However, Kanjorski is no Bob Casey and Pennsylvania isn’t the 11th Congressional District, where Democrats only slightly outnumber Republicans.
Pennsylvania still has 800,000 more Democrats than Republicans, and Casey has the top political brand name in state history along with big wins in all his five statewide elections in a state known for close races.
G. Terry Madonna, the state’s veteran political analyst, can’t understand why any Republican sees Casey as vulnerable, considering his political strength, President Donald Trump’s declining stature and the promise of a strong year for Democrats in 2018. It’s especially hard to understand when Barletta and Trump are virtually inseparable politically and why Barletta wants to give up a safe congressional seat to take on Casey, Madonna said.
“I have no clue,” he said. “I’m just puzzled.”
Barletta, who announced his Senate run Tuesday in an online video, is no lock to face Casey either.
Jeff Bartos, a Montgomery County Republican and real estate developer, launched a limited television advertising campaign last week on the Fox News Channel that targets Barletta right along with Casey.
“Career politicians make big promises, but fail to deliver,” the ad’s narrator says as pictures of Casey and Barletta glide across the screen.
Bartos’s campaign has more than $1 million
in cash on hand compared to Barletta’s $513,000,
even if half came from Bartos.
Bartos also has a super political action committee called Keystone Priorities PAC
backing him. That PAC can raise money without caps on donations and already has $1 million
in commitments.
They aren’t the only ones in the race. So are former energy executive Paul Addis,
cyber security consultant Cynthia E. Ayers,
state Rep. Jim Christiana, R-15, Beaver County, state Rep. Rick Saccone, R-39, Allegheny, and several more candidates.
However, only Addis raised more than $100,000 ($106,000, but that includes his $100,000 loan).
Madonna’s doubts aside, Republicans see plenty of reasons to view Casey as vulnerable.
First, he’s served in either Harrisburg or Washington, D.C., for more than 20 years, and anti-incumbent fever runs high these days.
Second, Republicans think most voters can’t name a significant Casey accomplishment.
“He’s more of a cipher than a U.S. senator,” said Christopher Nicholas, Addis’ political consultant. “That kind of rope-a-dope strategy has helped him election-wise because he’s a pleasant fellow and a fairly well-known name, stays out of the limelight and doesn’t do a lot good or bad. Maybe that’s good for a survival strategy. It’s not good for accomplishing anything.”
John Brabender, the political consultant handling Barletta, pointed to a recent NBC News/Marist University poll that shows Casey’s favorability rating trailing Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf’s by 8 percentage points with a third of voters still with no opinion of him.
“For somebody who’s been in office for as long as Bob Casey has, for so many people to even just say I don’t have an opinion of him, often times is disastrous for an incumbent,” Brabender said.
Third, Republicans think Casey started out as a moderate Democrat, pro-life and pro-guns, but tracked leftward and away from mainstream Democrats, especially lately. For the first time in his career, he advocated more gun control, mainly in response to the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. Pro-life advocates have long questioned his anti-abortion commitment because he hasn’t always supported new abortion restrictions.
“I think he’s gone, on both issues, from being off the Democratic reservation to firmly on the Democratic reservation,” Nicholas said.
In recent months, Brabender said, Casey consciously sided with liberal senators like Democratic Leader Charles Schumer and Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren as part of the Democratic resistance to Trump.
“We’re talking about a state (Pennsylvania) where Donald Trump did win,” he said. “What he (Casey) is betting everything on is that there’s going to be buyer’s remorse, particularly among the Democrats who supported Trump.”
Fourth, they see Casey’s recent electoral history.
In 2006, when Casey routed incumbent verbal bomb-throwing Republican Sen. Rick Santorum, he won every region of the state except central Pennsylvania. In 2012, when he beat coal-mining magnate Tom Smith by roughly half his 2006 margin, Casey also lost the northwest and southwest. Both were once full of Casey Democrats, the conservative Democrats long associated with his late father, former Gov. Robert Casey.
“If you look at where the dropoff is, it’s the same area where the president did well in the 2016 elections, and I think that speaks volumes,” Brabender said.
Brabender contends Barletta also cuts right into Casey’s base in the northeast and around Harrisburg.
“Those very Democrats, in the west particularly, but all across the state, who voted for Donald Trump last year, they have a lot in common with the type of things Lou Barletta has fought for, particularly immigration reform,” he said.
The same Marist poll shows more voters viewing Barletta unfavorably than favorably (10 percent favorable/16 percent unfavorable). Brabender discounts that because about three quarters have no view of his candidate. He points to the majority of voters who don’t have any opinion of Casey or think unfavorably of him.
Nicholas said he thinks Barletta’s ties to Trump would cost him in the southeast where 40 percent of state voters live and where Casey now thrives. He also said he thinks Addis being from Delaware County outside Philadelphia makes him more viable.
Madonna sees no serious reason to doubt Casey’s strength. Casey opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal that Trump cancelled and favors reforming the North American Free Trade Agreement like Trump.
“He may be now more liberal in his voting record, but on the whole he’s maintained his relationship with a lot of Democratic leaders through the northeastern part of the state and the southwestern part of the state,” Madonna said. “He’s not deserted the working class.”
Madonna said he thinks Trump could be a problem for any Republican next year, which is shaping up as a good year for Democrats.
Indeed, the Marist poll shows almost a quarter more state voters view the president unfavorably than favorably.
The Casey campaign knows the tide can turn in favor of the president, but for now it’s happy to lasso Barletta to Trump.
Barletta, Steele said, supported anti-illegal immigration measures as mayor that left his city facing millions of dollars in legal bills, backed Social Security privatization (for a time) and supported Medicare reform that would cost senior citizens more money.
“Barletta supported the disastrous Republican health care bill (meant to replace Obamacare) that even President Trump called mean,” Steele said. “Trump won the state obviously, and I think that’s why they are particularly paying attention here. I think the senator has put together a really strong record. The folks all over the state they know him. He’s been fighting for them for a long time.”
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Results of U.S. Sen. Bob Casey’s statewide elections:
1996, State Auditor General: Bob Casey (D), 2,367,760, 56.09 percent; Bob Nyce (R), 1,706,835, 40.43 percent; Sharon H. Shepps (Libertarian), 103,234, 2.45 percent; Robert P. Lord (Constitution), 43,487, 1.03 percent.
2000, State Auditor General: Bob Casey (D), 2,651,551, 56.84 percent; state Rep. Katie True (R), 1,862,934, 39.94 percent; Anne E. Goeke (Green), 62,642, 1.34 percent; Jessica A. Morris (Libertarian), 41,967, .9 percent; John H. Rhine (Constitution), 23,971, .51 percent; James R. Blair, 21,476, .46 percent.
2004, State Treasurer: Bob Casey (D), 3,353,489, 61.26 percent; Jean Craige Pepper (R), 1,997,951, 36.5 percent;Darryl W. Perry (Libertarian), 61,238, 1.12 percent; Paul Teese (Green), 40,740, .74 percent; Max Lampenfeld (Constitution), 20,406, .37 percent.
2006, U.S. Senate: Bob Casey (D), 2,392,984, 58.68 percent; Sen. Rick Santorum (R), 1,684,778, 41.32 percent.
2012, U.S. Senate: Bob Casey (D), 3,021,364, 53.69 percent; Tom Smith (R), 2,509,132, 41.32 percent;Rayburn Douglas Smith (Libertarian), 96,296, 1.72 percent.