Not long ago, Pennsylvania had a governor known as "one-term Tom," a governor some Democrats thought was almost sure to lose his job as soon as voters could get another crack at him.
As Democrats start to focus on limiting Gov. Tom Corbett to one term - and they already are, even though the election isn't until 2014 - they should keep in mind the last Republican "one-term Tom," Gov. Tom Ridge.
In 1998, three Democratic challengers stepped up to thwart a second term.
See if you remember these names: Ivan Itkin, William Keisling, Don Bailey.
Mr. Bailey, a former state auditor general, was perhaps best known. Mr. Keisling was known mostly for stirring things up in Harrisburg. Mr. Itkin, well, he was only the House Democratic leader and a long-serving state representative from Allegheny County.
Mr. Itkin won the Democratic primary election, then Mr. Ridge clobbered him by almost 2 to 1 in November.
Mr. Ridge clearly benefited from an economy just cruising along.
The economy is hardly great now, but two years hence, when Mr. Corbett is running for re-election, who knows. What's known is mid-first-term dissatisfaction with governors is par for the course in Pennsylvania politics and often sparks potential challenger talk of ousting them.
"If you go back and you look at past elections, you cannot go on the job performance of the governor this far out," said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., director of the Franklin & Marshall College poll.
For now, Mr. Corbett's present job performance ratings matter most. Voters' current views of his performance have Democrats salivating at the possibility of ending more than six decades of the major parties alternating eight-year stretches in the governor's office.
The list of Democratic names floated as potential challengers seems to grow by the day. The speculated list includes U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, state Treasurer Rob McCord and former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak. Only Philadelphia businessman Tom Knox has said he is running. Former Department of Environmental Protection Secretary John Hanger and former state Secretary of Revenue Tom Wolf, who both served under Gov. Ed Rendell, are also seriously considering bids. Mr. Hanger is actually hosting a reception during the Pennsylvania Society festivities next weekend.
The Pennsylvania Society is the annual meeting of the state's movers and shakers in New York City.
All the Democratic enthusiasm for beating Mr. Corbett centers on weak poll numbers.
A late September Franklin & Marshall College poll had only 30 percent of voters having a favorable view of the governor and the same percentage saying he was doing a good or excellent job. He was viewed unfavorably by 42 percent, and 64 percent said he was doing only a fair or poor job.
A mid-October Muhlenberg College poll had 32 percent of voters approving of Mr. Corbett's job performance and 41 percent disapproving.
On top of that, Democrats love the issue one of their own, state attorney general-elect Kathleen Granahan Kane, rode heavily to election: the governor's handling of the Jerry Sandusky sex abuse case while he was still attorney general.
Only 17 percent of voters in the September F&M poll said Mr. Corbett did a good (15 percent) or excellent (2 percent) job handling the case, with 66 percent saying he did only a fair (27 percent) or poor (39 percent) job.
Nonetheless, history says beware of too much enthusiasm so early.
Job performance and favorability ratings swing wildly and quickly.
After Superstorm Sandy in late October, Mr. Corbett's job performance rating jumped to 37 percent approval, 38 percent disapproval in an early November Muhlenberg poll. In a post-election poll, Quinnipiac University had Mr. Corbett at 40 percent approval and 38 percent disapproval.
Those numbers are far better than Mr. Rendell's (44 percent approval-55 percent disapproval) in a Franklin & Marshall College poll only nine months before his 2006 re-election. Mr. Rendell handily defeated Republican Lynn Swann after running months of political advertising promoting his accomplishments.
Mr. Corbett is nowhere near making his case for re-election yet.
"I'm not saying he can't be beaten. I'm merely pointing out we're so far away that it's too hard to know," Dr. Madonna said.
None of which is stopping Democrats from enthusiastically making the case that Mr. Corbett isn't doing the job.
Perhaps the most vocal so far, Mr. Hanger points to Mr. Corbett's big cuts in public and higher education, cuts to business taxes amid budget-balancing struggles, the failure to enact a natural gas extraction tax more in line with other states and the reversal in the state's employment picture.
In February 2011, Mr. Corbett's first full month in office, the state unemployment rate was 1 percentage point lower than the national rate (8 percent state, 9 percent national). As of last month, the state's rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than the national rate (8.1 percent state, 7.9 percent national). So the state's rate stayed about the same while the national rate dropped sharply, a nice factoid for Democrats if it holds up.
Of course, two years from now, as the governor election nears, the economy could be on the way up.
"There is no doubt if the economy is good, remember what happened here," Dr. Madonna said. "Rendell '06, economy good, he gets the benefit. ... Let's go back to 1998, the economy roaring, Ridge wins re-election. ... Notice (Gov. Robert) Casey gets re-elected in '90 before the recession of '91 hits. And the only guy who has a tough time winning re-election is (Gov. Dick) Thornburgh in '82 right in the middle of a recession."
Mr. Thornburgh won anyway.
Perhaps the Penn State scandal remains salient, Dr. Madonna said.
"We'll see how that stands. (It's) potentially a serious problem for him (Mr. Corbett)," he said.
Beyond that, Mr. Corbett has plenty of time to accomplish things he hasn't and reverse public perceptions.
"What about the cuts to the programs? What happens if they find the money and they don't cut the programs in the next two budgets?" he asked. "What happens if they do transportation funding? What happens if they do pension reform?"
Either way, the Democratic candidate will be forced "to provide voters with an alternative agenda," Dr. Madonna said.
"That's what a lot of people are missing," he said. "Number one, you've got to have enough money to get reasonably well known. Second, you've got to present them with an alternative vision of where you'll take the state. That's what Lynn Swann didn't do; that's what Ivan Itkin didn't do."
Contact the writer: bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com The names of a dozen Democrats have surfaced in recent months as potential candidates for governor in 2014. The list includes:
- U.S. Sen. Bob Casey. Fresh off a re-election campaign, Mr. Casey has not ruled out a run, but has repeatedly said he is happy as a senator. If he runs, almost everyone else won't, and he would spell trouble for any opponent.
- State Treasurer Rob McCord. Also newly re-elected, many Democrats think he is likeliest to run and favorite to win a primary election, if Mr. Casey doesn't run and there is a contested Democratic primary. Mr. McCord hasn't said publicly and sloughed off suggestions of a governor bid as he visited newspaper editorial boards during his recent re-election campaign, but he is telling political types he will run.
- Former U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak. Mr. Sestak of suburban Philadelphia always says he's interested in serving the public again, but lets everyone else do the talking about running for governor without saying anything himself. He lost a tight U.S. Senate race to Pat Toomey in 2010, but the time for another statewide race might be right.
- State Attorney General-elect Kathleen Granahan Kane. She always says she has no ambitions for higher office. Considering she was just elected, it's probably way too early to think about anything but the job ahead of her, though she was the top vote-getter statewide on Election Day. Her use of Mr. Corbett's handling of the Jerry Sandusky sex abuse case did highlight a potential major issue against the governor.
- Former Gov. Ed Rendell. He says the state constitution forbids him from running again, and he's not interested anyway. Others say the restriction only prevents serving more than two consecutive terms. No matter what, his job-creation record will contrast with Mr. Corbett's if the economic slump persists.
- Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro. A former state representative, he is in his first year as commissioner. He won't comment or rule it out, but he's unlikely to run. A run someday is not out of the question.
- Former state Department of Environmental Protection Secretary John Hanger. Mr. Hanger has all but said he's running. He is planning a reception during Pennsylvania Society festivities Friday in New York City.
- Businessman Tom Knox. A former Philadelphia deputy mayor when Mr. Rendell was mayor, Mr. Knox spent more than $10 million of his own money on an unsuccessful bid for mayor in 2007, ran briefly for governor in 2010, but dropped out early on. In an interview this week, Mr. Knox, who said back then he dropped out because his family was against his running, added another reason: polls he commissioned showed no Democrat could beat Mr. Corbett. He's thinking differently this time. He's definitely running, he said.
- Businessman Tom Wolf of York County. A former revenue secretary when Mr. Rendell was governor, he backed off a run in 2010, but might be ready this time.
- Former gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato. He lost badly to Mr. Corbett in 2010. Now an executive at Highmark Inc., it is highly doubtful he would run against Mr. Corbett again.
- U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz. Often mentioned as a statewide candidate, the suburban Philadelphia congresswoman has never showed a serious interest.
- Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski. Says he's flattered to be mentioned as a potential candidate, but says he's concentrating on winning a third term as mayor next year. Of course, he also highlighted credentials and issues he will deal with as mayor - service on a national transportation panel, pension reform and financially distressed cities - that would interest a governor. Keep an eye on him if others don't step up.