HARRISBURG - A combination of events is focusing attention on whether Gov. Tom Corbett and lawmakers can perform the political hat trick of passing major legislation dealing with transportation spending, liquor store privatization and curbing public pension costs while passing the next state budget on time for the third year in a row.
A dimmer outlook for state tax revenue growth and a lack of consensus among lawmakers on the trio of initiatives sought by Mr. Corbett creates prospects for more political uncertainty during the next six weeks in the Republican-controlled statehouse.
Democratic lawmakers are pressing the governor to say yes on another budget-related issue: adding hundreds of thousands of low-income Pennsylvanians to Medicaid rolls under the 2010 federal Affordable Care Act.
Lawmakers are on recess the next two weeks, with the clock ticking on the June 30 deadline for passing the state budget for fiscal 2013-14. But work on these issues continues behind the scenes with negotiations planned between Mr. Corbett and GOP legislative leaders.
June 30 deadline
Following a Harrisburg tradition, the June 30 budget passage deadline stands alone as a must-do from a legal standpoint, but the budget typically gets intertwined with other major pieces of legislation sought by governors and lawmakers before the lengthy summer recess.
Passing the state budget is needed to extend state spending authority into the new fiscal year that starts July 1. But budgets are often late due to anything from the protracted stalemate over dealing with deficits as happened in 2009 to wrangling over the infamous pay raise of 2005.
Mr. Corbett has met a campaign pledge to produce on-time budgets with his GOP majorities in the House and Senate during the past two years even if the deadline was met with minutes to spare.
"I think the only thing we can hold sacred is June 30," said Senate President Pro Tempore Joseph Scarnati, R-25, Jefferson County.
Holding to the deadline should help some realize they better compromise if they don't want to go home empty-handed, said Mr. Scarnati.
Medicaid expansion
Sen. John Blake, D-22, Archbald, a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, thinks an on-time budget is achievable, but he is critical of Mr. Corbett for not agreeing to the Medicaid expansion and linking his proposal to change future retirement benefits for state government and school district employees to the budget.
"We (lawmakers) are going to be out of here until June 3 and we are packing a lot of hard work in a short space," he said.
Mr. Blake plans to put a spotlight on the advantages of Medicaid expansion and accompanying federal aid for the health care industry in Northeast Pennsylvania. The Senate Democratic Policy Committee plans a hearing Thursday on Medicaid expansion at the Commonwealth Medical College in Scranton, he said.
The next move in the budget process is up to the House GOP majority, which plans to introduce a budget bill on May 28 that reflects the tighter revenue picture due to lower projections of state sales tax revenue collections, said House Appropriations Chairman Bill Adolph, R-165, Springfield.
Mr. Corbett presented a $28.4 billion budget proposal in February that includes a 2.4 percent overall increase in state spending, a modest boost for public education, elimination of the state capital stock and franchise tax and savings of $175 million from curbing public pension costs.
Revenue growth stalls
The state Independent Fiscal Office forecasts that a projected $232 million growth in revenue above estimates made last summer won't pan out due to lower state sales tax collections.
That $28.4 billion number is now an upper ceiling in Mr. Adolph's pending budget bill and it won't include projected pension savings since the fate of the enabling legislation is up in the air.
"Lower revenue receipts in 2012-13 also mean lower projected revenue for 2013-14, further reducing the amount of spending available next year," said the Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center, a Harrisburg think tank. Lawmakers should delay the final CSFT phaseout as a result, the center said.
Meanwhile, the three ancillary issues are at various stages of development. The House passed a landmark liquor privatization bill in March and the Senate has held two hearings on it. There is bipartisan support in the Senate for the alternative of modernizing the state stores.
The Senate is poised to vote on a $2.5 billion transportation funding bill that has bipartisan support in that chamber. House Republicans are less enthusiastic with one contingent led by Rep. Jerry Knowles, R-124, Tamaqua, seeking to use liquor store sale proceeds for state road and bridge work instead.
Mr. Corbett's pension proposal to place new state government and school district employees under a 401(a) defined contribution plan was just introduced as bills earlier this month in the House and Senate.
Kicking the can
There's no consensus in the House about dealing with pensions, said Stephen Miskin, spokesman for House Majority Leader Mike Turzai, R-28, Pittsburgh.
"Budget pressures will be exponentially more difficult to address each year moving forward, if we do not accomplish pension reform in this year's budget," said Corbett spokeswoman Christine Cronkright. "We can't continue to kick the can down the road."
Mr. Corbett would get kudos if he scores wins with two of the three ancillary proposals, said Terry Madonna, Ph.D., a pollster at Franklin & Marshall College. The governor would probably have a leeway of two or three days past the budget deadline to wrap it all up.
"You don't get any credit from the voters for doing it (budget) on time," he said. "You get hurt if you don't."
Contact the writer: rswift@timesshamrock.com