Despite months of higher visibility aimed at boosting his image, Gov. Tom Corbett remains stuck with low approval ratings, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll released Tuesday found.
That could endanger his re-election chances if he doesn't rebound, said the poll's director G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D.
Only one in four (25 percent) of Pennsylvania registered voters rated Mr. Corbett's job performance as excellent or good. The same number believe he deserves re-election; only about three in 10 (29 percent) view him favorably.
Dr. Madonna said Mr. Corbett has been unable to shake the fallout from the ongoing economic slump, his cuts to education and social services programs, his handling of the Penn State sex abuse case as state attorney general and his pursuit of an agenda - privatization of state liquor stores and the lottery - that is not a priority with voters.
"His dilemma is he has an agenda that ultimately may be good for the economy, I'm not suggesting it's not good or bad," Dr. Madonna said. "But at the moment he's not getting any political bang for his support for liquor store privatization and/or the privatization of the management of the lottery."
The poll showed about three in 10 voters (29 percent) named the economy, unemployment or personal finances as the most important issue facing the state with education/school (17 percent) and government/politicians (16 percent) at about a sixth each.
Voters responded to 11 issues, with creating new jobs and improving the economy by far the top two priorities, while privatizing liquor stores and lottery management the two lowest, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 526 voters between April 30 and Sunday with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
A February F&M poll had about the same percentage (26 percent) saying they believed Mr. Corbett is doing a good or excellent job.
Michael Barley, the manager of Mr. Corbett's re-election campaign, dismissed the poll as too early to ultimately matter much.
"Any poll is simply a snapshot in time and right now we are a year and a half away from the governor's re-election," Mr. Barley said. "The governor is focused on ensuring we pass the third consecutive on time balanced budget without raising taxes, while also tackling important issues to the commonwealth like pensions, transportations and liquor sales reform."
Mr. Barley said Mr. Corbett "will be judged on his record of creating over 100,000 private sector jobs, fostering the development of Pennsylvania as a world-leader in energy development, ensuring our state is a more attractive place for businesses to create new jobs, putting Pennsylvania on a path to fiscal reform and others."
Theoretically, Dr. Madonna said, Mr. Corbett might benefit from a difference in the poll's methodology, Unlike other polls, F&M allows voters the option of saying an elected politician is doing "only a fair job," an evaluation that he said is neither clearly positive or negative and could include voters who view the governor favorably.
About four in 10 voters (39 percent) say Mr. Corbett is doing "only a fair job" and almost a third (32 percent) say he is doing a poor job, but Dr. Madonna said what should be worrisome for the governor is that his two predecessors were rated by the same method and came away looking much better at roughly the same time in their terms.
In October 1997, five months later into Gov. Tom Ridge's first term than the current F&M poll on Mr. Corbett, almost six in 10 voters (57 percent) said Mr. Ridge was doing an excellent or good job and about three in 10 (28 percent) said he was doing "only a fair job." Half of voters (50 percent) said he deserved re-election and more than a third (36 percent) said it was time for a change. More than half of voters (53 percent) had a favorable view of Mr. Ridge with fewer than one in five (19 percent) having an unfavorable view.
"The economy was booming, GDP (gross national product) growth (was) 3, 4 percent, three or four hundred thousands jobs created every month," Dr. Madonna said. "He wins by 27 (percentage) points."
In June 2005, a month later into Mr. Rendell's first term this poll, slightly more than four in 10 voters (42 percent) said Mr. Rendell was doing a good or excellent job with about four in 10 voters (41 percent), about the same number as Mr. Corbett saying Mr. Rendell was doing "only a fair job." Less than a sixth (14 percent) said Mr. Rendell was doing a poor job. Fewer than four in 10 voters (38 percent) said Mr. Rendell deserved re-election and almost half (47 percent) said it was time for a change.
More than four in 10 voters (41 percent) had a favorable view or Mr. Rendell and only a third (33 percent) had an unfavorable view.
By comparison, almost two-thirds of voters (64 percent) say it's time for a change when asked if Mr. Corbett deserves re-election. Fewer than half (46 percent) of Republicans think he deserves re-election.
The poll also found, perhaps for the first time, a more nuanced view by Pennsylvanians of privatizing state liquor stores.
While almost half of voters (47 percent) said they support selling the state's liquor stores to private companies, fewer than four in 10 (37 percent) said that when given the option of saying they favored modernizing the existing stores. About a quarter (26 percent) said they favor modernization and almost a third (31 percent) said they favor the stores continuing as they are.
"Would voters be happy if they completely privatize it (liquor stores)? Probably," Dr. Madonna said. "Would they be unhappy if they didn't pass it? No ... I'll put it another way. I don't think a lawmaker loses election if he votes either way."
Contact the writer: bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com