Despite a high local unemployment rate, Wells Fargo Securities economist Tim Quinlan predicts the local and national economies will gradually grow at a pace of about 2 percent.
"The U.S. economy as a whole has shifted gears from recovery to expansion," Mr. Quinlan said. "I don't think we're talking about a recovery that is going to blow anyone's hair back."
Mr. Quinlan will speak at an economic outlook breakfast hosted by the Greater Wilkes-Barre Chamber of Business and Industry, the Greater Scranton Chamber of Commerce and Wells Fargo on March 27 at 8 a.m. at the Woodlands Inn and Resort in Plains Twp. This is the first year the Wilkes-Barre and Scranton chambers are teaming up for a combined event.
Mr. Quinlan will share his forecast for the local and national economies which, he said, are doing better than other countries such as the United Kingdom and Japan.
"We are already in expansion and those economies still have a long way to go," he said. "We're doing better than most, but perhaps not our full potential."
As Mr. Quinlan predicts slow economic growth, the unemployment rate in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area increased to 9.8 percent in January, the highest level among the state's 14 metro areas and higher than the state unemployment rate of 8.2 percent and the national rate of 7.9 percent in January.
Yet, Mr. Quinlan said the recovery in the region is keeping pace with the recovery nationwide. Some industries are adding jobs and the area is doing better than countries such as Greece, Italy and Spain, where the economies have been stagnant, he said.
Mr. Quinlan said the biggest economic challenges for business owners are the uncertainty about the future of taxes and health care costs and the ongoing problems in balancing the national budget. He said a small businessman who wants to hire needs clarity from Congress about what his corporate tax rate, personal tax rate and share of health care costs will be.
"We seem to go from one crisis to the next in Congress from the fiscal cliff to sequestration," Mr. Quinlan said. "There are a lot of uncertain messages from Congress, which is standing in the way of a faster recovery in the business sector."
Mr. Quinlan joined Wells Fargo in 2002 and previously held positions as a financial advisor, a trust account portfolio manager and investment strategist before joining the economics group in 2007. He writes a monthly economic outlook report and a weekly economic and financial commentary. His work also been published in academic economic journals.
The cost to attend the breakfast is $20 for chamber members and $25 for non-chamber members. To register, call 342-7711 or visit www.scrantonchamber.com
Contact the writer: dallabaugh@citizensvoice.com