PITTSTON TWP. - Holding a plane plotter in one hand, Jason Condon circled the conference table, occasionally stopping to help students track the distance from the Priest River Airport in Priest River, Idaho, to the Shoshone County Airport in Smelterville, Idaho.
The answer: 48 miles, with an estimated travel time of 31 minutes based on wind speeds.
Years ago, when seats were filled and more instruction was necessary, this same problem might have taken an extra 20 minutes to solve - but times have changed, Mr. Condon said.
"There has been a slow and steady decline (in enrollment) since 2007," said Mr. Condon, the manager of the Federal Aviation Administration-approved Tech Aviation Flight School based in Pittston Twp. "We are hoping it turns around in the next several years."
The declining enrollment rate at the Tech Aviation Flight School mirrors a nationwide dip in student pilots, a trend that has continued for years, but now poses a problem as the demand for commercial pilots is expected to significantly increase.
According to the FAA, 55,298 student pilot certificates were issued in 2011 - 6,150 less than the total certificates issued in 2006, and 10,123 less than the 65,421 issued in 2002.
The significant drop is an indication the profession isn't as attractive as it used to be, said Mr. Condon, who pointed to a pilot's starting salary, as well as the time and financial commitment it takes to earn a commercial pilot license.
At his flight school, it can cost up to $50,000 - not including the college tuition most of his students pay - to earn all the required certificates to even "interview with a major commercial airline."
However, they also need to log at least 250 hours of flight time, Mr. Condon said - a figure that will jump by 500 percent, when federal mandates take effect in the summer, requiring all pilots to have 1,500 hours of flight experience before they can be hired as a commercial pilot.
"You are looking at six, seven years of training before they can even get an interview," Mr. Condon said. "That's a serious investment, especially when their starting salary is around $25,000.
"It can absolutely be a deterrent for someone considering a commercial piloting career."
And it couldn't have come at a worse time.
In its 2012 Long-Term Market Forecast, Boeing Co., a U.S. aircraft manufacturer, suggests airlines in North America will need 69,000 new pilots and 7,300 new airplanes to accommodate an average 2 percent annual traffic growth.
As of now, there are approximately a combined 68,000 pilots employed by major and regional airlines in the United States, according to Vaughn Jennings, the Managing Director of Government and Regulatory Communications for Airlines for America, a trade organization among the U.S. airlines.
But a significant chunk of those pilots - thousands, officials say - will soon hit the mandatory retirement age of 65, leaving the United States with a pilot shortage in the coming years.
"There absolutely is a level of concern, especially with the already low enrollment numbers and the new requirements pilots have to meet," said Kelly Murphy, a spokeswoman for the Regional Airline Association. "If we lose pilots, but continue adding airplanes, there won't be enough pilots to fill the cockpits.
"We will have to start parking airplanes."
While the effects will be felt nationwide, Ms. Murphy said the regional airports will be hit the hardest, as larger airlines - if needed - could hire qualified pilots away from the regional airlines.
Either way, Ms. Murphy said it's a problem the industry must address.
"We need to do more as an industry to attract the next generation," Ms. Murphy said. "They are the ones who will help fill these needs."
Hanging on a bulletin board in the hallways of the Tech Aviation Flight School, mixed in with flight safety tips and an introduction to the clouds poster, is a printout of Boeing's 2012 to 2031 Pilot and Technician Outlook.
The chart depicts the world's pressing need for pilots, suggesting there has to be 460,000 new commercial pilots worldwide by 2031 to accommodate the annual growth.
But what it doesn't show is the emotional, physical and financial investment one must be willing to commit to achieve his or her dream - to sit in the cockpit of a Boeing 787, a Hawker Siddeley or any other major airplane.
"It's a long journey, and you have to be prepared for what you are getting into if your ultimate goal is to become a commercial pilot," Mr. Condon said. "For many, that investment will be worth it."
Contact the writer:
miorfino@timesshamrock.com, @miorfinoTT on Twitter
By the numbers
-â69,000 new pilots needed, according to Boeing long-term forecast
-â55,298 pilot certificates issued in 2011
-â6,150 fewer certificates than 2006
-â10,123 fewer than 2002