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Personal income grows by fastest pace since recession

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Personal income for those in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre metro area grew in 2011 by the fastest pace since before the recession.

Income from all sources for the region increased by 3.94 percent to $36,889 per year, according to data released Monday by the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. That increase lagged the growth in income experienced by the country-at-large, which saw incomes grow by 5.21 percent last year.

The region was not alone. Personal income rose in 2011 in all of the nation's 366 metro areas for the first time since 2007.

The results for the area, which includes Lackawanna, Luzerne and Wyoming counties, are not surprising, said Jay Bryson, Ph.D., an economist with Wells Fargo. Personal incomes usually increase with economic growth and the recovery, while slow, has been taking hold.

"I'd be very surprised if there weren't some kinds of growth," Dr. Bryson said.

Over the last decade, local people's personal income grew at a pace slower than the national economy - with the exception of 2007, an outlier year, Dr. Bryson said, where local income grew 6.62 percent compared to the national rate of 5.72 percent.

"Scranton/Wilkes-Barre didn't have the housing bubble like the Sun Belt states, so it didn't have the income inflation of some regions," he said.

While income growth in the area typically does not keep pace with the nation, the region appears to be insulated from the declines, as well. In 2009 when incomes nationally fell by 4.81 percent, local incomes fell by just 1.4 percent.

While this year's 3.94 percent increase in personal income sounds great after slogging through a recession, inflation grew during 2011 by 2.4 percent, gobbling the majority of that increase.

Still, any margin above inflation is good news, said Kurt Rankin, economist with PNC Bank. Personal income is crucial to the economy because it helps determine whether consumers are willing to spend, helping the economy. Unfortunately, the slow recovery, job insecurity and national fiscal issues weigh against consumers' willingness to spend.

One bright spot that puts the region in a better situation than most is real estate. Values have been leveling off and showing a very slight upturn, Mr. Rankin said.

While a turnaround in housing values won't influence people's income, the "Wealth Effect" may get people to start spending.

"When people stop thinking their home will be worth less than it was last year, it's going to help convince people to spend that income increase, helping the economy and creating new jobs," he said.

The downside is that the labor market is flooded with many applicants for each post, so employers are under no pressure to increase wages.

Wages will continue to increase slightly more than inflation through 2012 and 2013, Mr. Rankin predicted.

Contact the writer: dfalchek@timesshamrock.com


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